While Week 16 may seem like an arbitrary week for general NFL fans, it’s got a whole other meaning in fantasy football circles. This is a semi-final week in any fantasy football league worth its salt, which means your start ’em, sit ’em decisions are more crucial now than ever.
The games are going to start coming thick and fast over the next two weeks, though, so make sure you’re paying attention to the schedule. Over the next week, we’ve got games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday, so keep your eye on player news as often as you can.
This week, we’ve got our eye on a couple of running backs with mouth-watering matchups that you absolutely have to start this week: James Conner and Bijan Robinson, for starters.
Must-Start of the Week: James Conner, RB (ARI) @ CAR
James Conner has had a nice couple of weeks. He ran for 90 in Week 14, and 110 in Week 15, as it seems he’s getting hot at just the right time for fantasy football managers.
Conner has fallen under 13 fantasy points just four times this season, and he’s coming off back-to-back 20+ point performances. Not to mention that he’s also grabbed a stranglehold over the backfield over the last two weeks, playing 71 percent and 77 percent of the snaps.
Conner is also going against the worst run defense in the NFL. Last week, Rico Dowdle was our start of the week at RB, and he took 25 totes for 149 yards against this Carolina defense.
Conner has also played well against poor run defenses: he has averaged 17.7 fantasy points in the six games he’s played against the teams in the bottom 10 in rush yards allowed to RBs. Carolina is the worst of the worst: allowing 26 more yards per game to RBs (141.5) than any other team. No wonder he’s FantasyPros’ No. 5 RB this week.
Must-Start of the Week: Bijan Robinson, RB (ATL) vs. NYG
Just ahead of Conner on those FantasyPros rankings for Week 16 is our other must-start of the week. Bijan Robinson hasn’t quite exploded like we expected in his second season, but he’s been extremely productive of late.
Though he started the season slow, he’s put up 18+ fantasy points in seven of his last nine outings, including five 20+ efforts. He’s also playing a lot more, as he’s seen 70+ percent of snaps in six straight games as Tyler Allgeier fades into the background.
Robinson is always one of the key offensive weapons for the Atlanta Falcons, but with a rookie QB making his first career start for them this week (Michael Penix Jr.), we expect the Falcons to lean even more heavily on Robinson and the running game.
Not to mention that the Giants have basically packed it in for the season, so there will be tons of rushing opportunities for Bijan against a Giants defense allowing the 2nd-most rush yards (143.7) per game on the 2nd-highest yards per attempt (4.9).
Start ‘Em QBs
Baker Mayfield (TB) @ DAL: Obviously, if you’ve got Josh Allen, start him, but that seemed too easy for our purposes. Baker Mayfield has put up 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back games, and he has gone below 18 just twice since Week 4. He’s got a very solid floor, and with Mike Evans back to his full powers, Tampa’s passing offense has been a lot of fun. The Cowboys are also giving up 19.8 fantasy points per game to QBs, 4th-most in the NFL.
Streaming Options: Cooper Rush (DAL) vs. TB, Kyler Murray (ARI) @ CAR
Sit ‘Em QBs
C.J. Stroud (HOU) @ KC: Another week, another instance where you should probably look for fantasy QB help other than C.J. Stroud. He was our QB sit of the week last week, and he didn’t even crack 12 fantasy points.
He has only topped 15 fantasy points once since Week 7, and that’s simply not going to cut it in a fantasy football semi-final. Not to mention he’s going up against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, where they have kept four of their last five opponents to under 200 yards passing.
Other Sits: Brock Purdy (SF) @ MIA, Bo Nix (DEN) @ LAC
Start ‘Em RBs
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) @ CHI: David Montgomery’s season-ending injury was a gut-punch for Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions. But it was a source of tepid celebration for Gibbs’ fantasy managers.
Gibbs has clearly been the better back all year. Now, he’ll be getting close to 100 percent of the RB touches. He’s also going up against a Chicago Bears defense that allows 20.6 fantasy points per game to RBs, 4th-most in football. Even with Monty in there, Gibbs had gone for 14+ fantasy points in 11 of 14 games.
Other Starts: James Cook (BUF) vs. NE, Josh Jacobs (GB) vs. NO
Sit ‘Em RBs
Joe Mixon (HOU) @ KC: Joe Mixon was a menace to start the year, rushing for 100+ yards in six of his first eight starts for the Houston Texans, and scoring in seven of those eight. However, he has just one TD over his last three outings, a stretch that included two games with under 25 rush yards.
The Chiefs allow by far the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs (11.8), so Mixon is likely going to have another tough day on Saturday.
Other Sits: Brian Robinson (WAS) vs. PHI, Javonte Williams (DEN) @ LAC
Start ‘Em WRs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. MIN: The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best teams in the league, and a lot of that has to do with their defense. However, they have a soft spot for wideouts, as they allow 26.0 fantasy points per game to WRs, most in the NFL.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put up 13+ points in five of his last six as he’s become Geno Smith’s favorite target. And considering they’ll likely be chasing Sam Darnold and company, JSN will have tons of opportunities.
Other Starts: Cooper Rush (DAL) vs. TB, Kyler Murray (ARI) @ CAR
Sit ‘Em WRs
Jauan Jennings (SF) @ MIA: Most of the focus on South Beach is on the struggles of the offense. However, the defense should be getting some love.
They have allowed the 8th-fewest passing yards per game (205.0), the 6th-fewest passing TDs (16), and the 2nd-fewest fantasy per game points to WRs (18.1). Jauan Jennings, meanwhile, has really crashed back down to earth recently, posting seven or fewer fantasy points in three of his last four.
Other Sits: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) vs. TEN, Jerry Jeudy (CLE) @ CIN
Start ‘Em TEs
Dalton Schultz (HOU) @ KC: We don’t like much about the Texans offense in this matchup with the Chiefs. But, if there’s one thing K.C. can’t stop, it’s opposing TEs. They give up 74.6 yards per game to opposing tight ends, most in the NFL, and Dalton Schultz is a more-than-capable receiver. He’s only had one double-digit fantasy points game this year, but we reckon he’ll double it on Saturday.
Other Starts: Jordan Akins (CLE) @ CIN, Jake Ferguson (DAL) vs. TB
Sit ‘Em TEs
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. DET: Cole Kmet has just one game with more than six fantasy points since Week 7. The Bears are going up against a Lions defense with tons of holes—but the only place they don’t have one is in their defending of TEs: they allow the fewest fantasy points per game to TEs at 4.39. They’ve also only given up just two TE touchdowns this year.
Other Sits: Tucker Kraft (GB) vs. NO, Tommy Tremble (CAR) vs. ARI
2024-12-18 19:41:32
