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Crypto News

Bitcoin Still in Bull Phase But Far From Euphoric Peaks: Bitfinex Alpha

Bitcoin is currently trading above $107,000, but analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex say the asset is still far from “euphoric peaks.” Historical data cited by the analysts suggest the crypto market is in the middle of the bull phase and could peak in Q3 or Q4 2025, roughly 450 days after the April 2024 halving.

In a weekly report detailing expectations for bitcoin’s price in 2025, Bitfinex analysts said it could peak at $339,000 or $145,000 due to diminishing returns moderating the level of gains seen in previous cycles.

BTC Still Far From Euphoric Peaks

Bitcoin has rallied 573% from its bear market lows of $15,487 in November 2022 and 130% on a year-to-date basis. This bull market has been driven by strong institutional demand, spot accumulation, and consistent purchases by Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot ETFs are now considered a dominant force in the Bitcoin market. The products hold more than 1.13 million BTC and have a cumulative inflow of over $50 billion.

With institutional investors and the spot Bitcoin ETF market driving demand for BTC, analysts expect corrections in this bull cycle to remain relatively small. Data from previous cycles also show that BTC has recorded minimal corrections after entering price discovery post-halving. In 2017, the maximum decline during such phases was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle was minimal at 27.1%.

“In the current bull cycle, which began in mid to late 2023, Bitcoinʼs corrections have been smaller, particularly since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to continue, keeping future corrections limited and potentially shorter in duration,” Bitfinex stated.

Optimistic Expectations for 2025

Although analysts have optimistic expectations for BTC in 2025, they have warned that the cryptocurrency may not see rallies as high as recorded in previous cycles. In 2021, BTC rose roughly 40% from its moving averages; however, the trend of diminishing returns could place the surge at 15-20% above the moving averages.

This translates to BTC peaking at $160,000 or $200,000 in mid-2025 or, in a less likely scenario, $290,000 by early 2026.

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2024-12-17 11:28:59

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Crypto News

LastPass-linked crypto theft climbs to over $250 million after latest $5.4 million hit

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has revealed that malicious actors, identified as the “LastPass threat actor,” have siphoned off approximately $5.36 million in cryptocurrencies.

In a Dec. 17 post on his Telegram Channel, ZachXBT stated:

“Today an estimated $5.36M was drained by the LastPass threat actor from 40+ victim addresses. Stolen funds were swapped for ETH and transferred to various instant exchanges from Ethereum to Bitcoin.”

This exploit traces back to a December 2022 security breach, when LastPass disclosed that attackers accessed archived backups of encrypted vault data stored on a third-party cloud platform. At the time, LastPass, a popular password manager, warned that the breach exposed user vault data, including usernames, passwords, and secure notes.

However, LastPass assured users that brute-forcing master passwords would be extremely challenging due to strong encryption protocols.

Despite this claim, recent attacks have shown that the hackers have systematically targeted users who stored their private keys or seed phrases in their LastPass vaults.

Over $250 million now lost

The Security Alliance (SEAL), a team of cybersecurity experts, reported that crypto losses connected to the breach have now exceeded $250 million as of May 2024.

According to SEAL, these attacks could have been prevented as many victims—despite practicing caution—unknowingly placed their digital assets at risk by relying on centralized storage for private keys.

Considering the latest wave of attack, SEAL stated:

“Don’t be a part of the statistic. If you used LastPass in the past and think there’s a chance you stored your private key or seed phrase in your vault, take the time and move all your tokens  [and] transfer ownership of any contracts/multisigs/etc.”

Security experts noted that this incident highlights the dangers of trusting password managers with sensitive crypto-related data. To mitigate further losses, crypto holders must immediately safeguard their assets and reduce exposure to similar vulnerabilities.

Posted In: Crime, Featured

2024-12-17 10:03:06

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Crypto News

The 7 Prominent Theories Explaining the Mystery Drones

President-elect Donald Trump took to the podium Monday to claim that “the Government knows” what’s behind the mysterious drone sightings from New Jersey to California. “Something strange is going on,” he added.

You can say that again.

As sightings surge across the globe, a pressing question lingers: who—or what—is controlling these unknown aerial phenomena?

To date, over 3000 sightings have been reported across several states, including New Jersey, New York, and Maryland. The first sightings began in mid-November, sparking a flurry of speculation ranging from extraterrestrial visitors to foreign adversaries.

Here are some of the most prevalent theories on social media attempting to explain the phenomenon.

The Missing Nukes/Dirty Bomb Sweep Theory

One of the most prominent theories advanced during the weekend suggests the drones are a federal operation trying to find missing nuclear weapons or radioactive material trafficked by terrorists.

This nightmare scenario, suggested by Saxon Aerospace CEO John Ferguson, has gone viral on social media.

“Drones have no reason to be in the air at night unless you’re doing some type of ISR work, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, looking for bad guys or looking for a victim, a search and rescue victim, or law enforcement or some type of military project,” Ferguson said in a clip uploaded to TikTok.

Ferguson recalled what he believes could be a similar event a few years ago in which drones were reportedly sighted flying in grid formations at night along the Interstate 70 corridor in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. The sightings began in mid-December and carried into January, with reports of convoys as large as 19 drones.

“It was believed that those drones were looking for radioactive material because there had been some material that come up missing here in the United States, and they felt like it was a high probability that the nuclear or the radioactive material would be taken along interstate 70 corridor, heading east or west or south.”

The PSY-OP/Government Conspiracy Theory

A far less horrifying theory suggests the drones may be experimental technology undergoing public testing. While less prevalent, this idea aligns with speculation that the drones could be part of a psychological operation, or PSY-OP, designed to influence public perception or government policy.

The usual social media conspiracy theorists take this notion further, pushing the idea that the increase in drone activity is aimed at diverting attention from more important government activities attendant to the waning days of the Biden Administration.

Certainly, the federal government isn’t doing much to get to the bottom of the drone story, further fueling suspicion. “I generally believe in government, but this is testing my faith in their honesty,” New Jersey State Senator John Bramnick said Monday.”My guess is there is information, but they’re holding it back. And now what you have is panic.” He added that “the Department of Defense has to come clean with the American public.”

The ET Theory

No mystery involving unidentified aerial phenomena would be complete without extraterrestrial speculation.

Mitch Horowitz, UFO expert and host of HBO Max’s “Alien Encounters: Fact or Fiction,” believes the term “drones” might serve as a psychological crutch to help the public process the idea of alien visitors.

“I think we’re using the term drones because it’s reassuring to employ a familiar term; it stands to reason that if we put a familiar name on bizarre phenomena, it’s reassuring in a certain way,” Horowitz previously told Decrypt. “I haven’t met anybody of any quality of intellect who professes any degree of confidence in what is going on.”

The Mass Hysteria Theory

At the other end of the spectrum are people who say that the drone sightings across the U.S. are mass hysteria rather than a real phenomenon, despite government officials saying they are investigating. They consistently point out that many reports of unexplained aerial phenomena are, in fact, nothing more than airplanes.

The Copycats/Hoaxers Theory

The simplest explanation may be that people are pulling a prank—though if the drones being reported are as big as some claim, that’s unlikely. Still, increased public and media interest has likely encouraged hobbyists and more likely pranksters to fly their drones in areas where sightings have been reported..

« When a story like this gets attention, it draws more people in—some flying drones to look for others, and some just flying them to mess with people,” Grant Jordan, the CEO of San Diego-based drone detection software company SkySafe, told Decrypt. “People are now seeing these drones in San Diego and the videos that were shown, it’s just standard air traffic going into the San Diego Airport.”

The Iranian Mothership/Foreign Spy Theory

Earlier this month, U.S. Representative Jeff Van Drew floated the idea that the drones were being launched from a “mothership” in the Atlantic Ocean controlled by Iran, which had somehow managed to avoid detection as it sat off the Eastern Seaboard.

This theory was swiftly debunked by the U.S. Department of Defense.

“There is not any truth to that,” Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters last week. “There is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States, and there’s no so-called mothership launching drones towards the United States.”

The Angels Theory

Meanwhile, a surprising number of people seem to think that the drones are angels.

Edited by Josh Quittner and Sebastian Sinclair

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2024-12-16 22:08:49

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Crypto News

Ripple (XRP) Reclaims 3rd Spot After 7% Daily Surge, Bitcoin (BTC) Neared $108K (Market Watch)

Bitcoin is in a price discovery mode once again as it continues to chart fresh all-time highs daily, with the latest coming hours ago at just under $108,000.

Many altcoins have followed suit, including XRP, XLM, and CRO. In Ripple’s case, the asset managed to overcome USDT in terms of market cap once again.

BTC Keeps Pumping

It was just a week ago when the primary cryptocurrency struggled to maintain its momentum and was pushed south hard on a couple of occasions to $94,400. However, the bulls managed to defend that level and initiated a leg-up that drove the asset to $98,000 on Thursday and beyond $100,000 on Friday.

Since then, BTC has predominantly traded within six-digit territory. Moreover, it broke its early December all-time high of $103,800 on Monday by surging past $106,000.

After a brief retracement in the afternoon, the cryptocurrency went on the offensive in the evening, and especially during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session, when it exploded to $107.800 to chart its latest peak.

Despite losing some ground since then, BTC is still above $107,000. Its market cap has skyrocketed to well above $2.1 trillion, and its dominance over the alts has risen to almost 54% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 17.12.2024. Source: TradingView

XRP on the Rise

Perhaps the biggest news in the cryptocurrency industry yesterday came from Ripple as the company said its stablecoin has been approved and is ready to be deployed today – December 17. This sent the other native token – XRP – soaring immediately, as it pumped from under $2.37 to a multi-day peak of almost $2.6 earlier today. Additionally, XRP has reclaimed the third spot in terms of market cap by surpassing USDT.

XLM and CRO are the other notable gainers from the larger-cap alts, surging by 9% and 7%, respectively. ETH is above $4,000 once again after a minor daily increase, similar to those of SOL, BNB, ADA, and AVAX.

In contrast, TON and LINK have retraced by around 4% each.

The total crypto market cap has gained another $90 billion in a day and is at a peak of its own of nearly $3.950 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

2024-12-17 09:45:10

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Crypto News

SEC Serves NFT Project CyberKongz With Wells Notice Citing Securities Violations

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a Wells Notice to NFT gaming project CyberKongz, marking the latest regulatory probe into an entity of its type.

“The SEC’s Division of Enforcement have approached us with very concerning rhetoric that you can not have a token (ERC-20) in tandem with a blockchain game without registering it as a security,” the project said in a statement posted to X on Monday.

A Wells Notice informs recipients that the regulator is thinking of undertaking enforcement actions based on what it discovers from preliminary investigations. Once served, the notice typically gives recipients 30 days to respond before the SEC decides whether to pursue it.

A full-blown investigation and subsequent charges against CyberKongz could present “major implications” for the blockchain gaming industry, it said, adding it would “defend against this stance for the wider space.”

In particular, projects combining NFTs with utility tokens could be affected. CyberKongz, which operates without venture funding or significant treasury reserves, said it plans to challenge the notice.

« We have been suffering in silence for the last two years, ever since we first received contact from the SEC, » CyberKongz said, alleging the regulator has « a complete lack of understanding of blockchain technologies, » which has resulted in « unjust accusations and information inaccuracies. »

CyberKongz and the SEC did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s requests for comment.

The SEC’s concern is centered on the NFT project’s April 2021 Genesis Kongz contract migration, which regulators interpreted as a token sale, according to the company’s statement. CyberKongz maintains this was purely a technical upgrade rather than a securities offering.

« If they cannot distinguish between a primary sale and a contract migration, what hope do we currently have for a clear regulatory pathway going forward? » the project said.

As a gaming platform, CyberKongz provides users with features such as randomly generated 2D and 3D avatar NFTs used in « play & kollect » games on the Ronin blockchain.

The notice served to CyberKongz follows similar regulatory scrutiny leveled against NFT platform Immutable in November, in which token sales were also put into question.

« You know you’re part of a revolution when you start to become persecuted, » says Jihoz Zirlin, co-founder of Axie Infinity, commenting on X. “I stand with CyberKongz.”

Despite the revelation, the project’s floor price remains steady at 8.2 ETH ($32,800), up 14.4% over 24 hours, CoinGecko data shows.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair

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2024-12-17 06:12:21

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Crypto News

Here’s How Much Ripple USD (RLUSD) Has Been Minted Ahead of Today’s Launch

Ripple, the US-based enterprise company behind the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, made the headlines on December 16, announcing that its long-anticipated stablecoin is finally ready to be deployed, which will happen later today.

There were a lot of speculations and fraud attempts ahead of the official statement, but CryptoQuant’s data shows that the actual number of minted new tokens has risen to almost $66 million.

Interestingly, the majority of the RLUSD coins are on the Ethereum network – $52.9 million, while only $13.3 million have been minted on Ripple’s own – XRPL.

Minted RLUSD Ahead of Launch. Source: CryptoQuant

The numbers are quite impressive, given the fact that the stablecoin has not officially seen the light of day yet. This is scheduled to take place later today, as reported yesterday.

After receiving the necessary green light from the NYDFS, Ripple’s team announced on December 16 that RLUSD was going live the next day. Moreover, the stablecoin Advisory board has seen a couple of new additions – Raghuram Rajan (former RBI governor) and Kenneth Montgomery (former First VP and COO of Boston’s Federal Reserve).

Ripple described RLUSD as the “future of finance.” It’s a stablecoin fully backed by US dollar deposits, government bonds and “other cash equivalents with monthly third-party audits.” It will receive multi-chain support, which is already evident by the minting process on Ethereum and XRPL, with other networks coming later.

RLUSD is built for “cross-border payments, DeFi integration, and bridging between fiat and crypto.”

Ripple aims to enter a highly competitive and growing stablecoin market. The total value of all such tokens has shot above $200 billion recently and is mostly dominated by Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC.

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2024-12-17 07:25:34

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Ethena Labs launches stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s tokenized fund shares

Ethena Labs announced the launch of its USDtb stablecoin, which will leverage  BlackRock’s tokenized fund, USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), for 90% of its backing.

According to the Dec. 16 announcement, the partnership was facilitated by Securitize.

USDtb will operate independently from Ethena’s existing algorithmic stablecoin, USDe, providing users and exchange partners with a stablecoin featuring a differentiated risk profile. Ethena’s Risk Committee has also approved USDtb as a potential backing asset for USDe, enhancing its ability to navigate volatile market conditions.  

USDtb design provides flexibility and risk mitigation across Ethena’s ecosystem and beyond, as Spark’s $1 billion Tokenization Grand Prix touts directing incentives towards the stablecoin. The initiative will boost tokenization efforts.

Additionally, USDtb is inherently multichain, built as LayerZero’s Omnichain Fungible Token (OFT). Users can transfer USDtb across various blockchains, such as Ethereum, Base, Solana, and Arbitrum

USDtb’s liquidity will be supported by prominent market makers, including Jump, Cumberland, Wintermute, Amber, GSR, and SCB Limited.

Notably, Ethena Labs’s move represents a significant step forward for stablecoins, which combine the stability of traditional finance with the efficiency and scalability of blockchain. BlackRock’s BUIDL currently has a market cap of nearly $562 million.

Furthermore, it solidifies Ethena’s position in the stablecoin market following the success of its algorithmic stablecoin USDe, which grew 93% over the past 30 days to hit a $5.6 billion market cap — making it the third-largest stablecoin in the market.

The growth could be closely tied to its value accrual mechanism, which is giving USDe stakers a 27% annual percentage yield (APY) as of press time.

TradFi meets DeFi

In addition to Ethena Labs, other DeFi protocols are also considering tapping into BUIDL. 

Money market platform Aave proposed a new GHO Stability Module (GSM) on Aug. 26 based on BlackRock’s tokenized fund. Aave created the GSM to help maintain the peg of its ecosystem’s stablecoin, GHO.

Meanwhile, BlackRock plans to expand its BUIDL offering for traditional finance giants. The asset manager is considering using the shares of its tokenized fund as collateral for derivatives trading.

Such a move would connect the trillion-dollar derivatives market to the nascent tokenized money funds sector, which is roughly $3 billion in size as of Dec. 16.

Mentioned in this article

2024-12-17 00:00:50

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Crypto News

FCA Calls for Industry Input on Plans to Tackle Abuse in UK Crypto Market

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has released a discussion paper centered around tightening rules in the UK’s crypto-asset market by clamping down on what it sees as abuse and a lack of transparency. 

The regulator says it hopes to improve regulatory clarity in an effort to provide “clear and consistent ‘rules of the game’ for firms and consumers,” according to a statement on Monday.

The paper suggests that authorized crypto trading platforms adopt strong internal measures to prevent market abuse and share information to detect fraudulent activity.

“Admissions and disclosures and market abuse regimes are crucial to improving the integrity and cleanliness of our crypto markets, as well as helping people make informed financial decisions,” the FCA stated Monday.

The FCA said that developing a stable and reliable market framework will encourage sustainable investment and long-term growth within its country’s borders.

Building on insights gathered from crypto roundtables earlier this year, the proposal received input from the government’s ongoing consultation with industry stakeholders.

The FCA emphasized crypto assets remain high-risk and largely unregulated, warning, “If something goes wrong, it’s unlikely you will be protected, and you should be prepared to lose all your money.”

This initiative comes after the FCA revealed in September that 90% of crypto firm applications were rejected last year due to weak anti-money laundering controls. Italso issued over 450 consumer alerts against unauthorized crypto promotions in the same period.

The Bank of England has similarly increased scrutiny, requiring firms to report their crypto-asset exposures by March 2025.

Feedback on the discussion paper will inform the FCA’s next steps, with a Consultation Paper to follow before final rules are adopted. The agency is calling upong industry participants, policymakers, consumer groups, and other stakeholders to provide input by no later than March 14, 2025.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair

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2024-12-17 04:40:45

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Upbit’s MOCA Listing Sparks 7,500% Trading Volume Explosion

Prominent exchange listings often ignite massive price surges for lesser-known tokens, especially during a bull market.

South Korean crypto exchange giant Upbit’s announcement to list MOCA Network (MOCA), for one, has had a dramatic effect on its market performance.

Whale Moves Millions in MOCA

After Upbit announced the listing of MOCA, its price surge prompted two wallets, likely linked to the same whale, to deposit 9.5 million MOCA tokens worth $3.55 million to Bybit.

If these tokens are fully sold at the current price levels, the whale stands to make an impressive profit of $2.55 million, highlighting the significant market impact and profit potential tied to strategic token movements following major exchange listings, according to data compiled by Lookonchain.

Over the past 24 hours alone, MOCA has experienced a whopping 160% rally, briefly reaching $0.426 before stabilizing near $0.22. This price surge was accompanied by an astonishing 7,500% increase in trading volume, which now stands at $1.32 billion, and a market capitalization spike of over 205% to $341.61 million.

As per the official update, Upbit launched Korean Won, Bitcoin (BTC), and USDT trading pairs for MOCA. For the uninitiated, MOCA is the utility and governance token of a decentralized ecosystem called Mocaverse, which is a flagship project of the Hong Kong-based Web3 giant Animoca Brands Group.

$10M Funding Round For Mocaverse

Beyond its market performance, Animoca Brands recently announced a $10 million funding round for Mocaverse. The funding, supported by major investors like OKX Ventures, CMCC Global, and HongShan, is aimed at expanding Mocaverse’s interoperable infrastructure for consumer crypto adoption.

With MOCA’s fully diluted valuation at $1 billion, Animoca said that it is strategically building the Realm Network to advance Web3 interoperability and digital property rights. Mocaverse’s rapid growth is evident in initiatives like the Moca ID, which has already registered over 1.79 million IDs and fostered partnerships with prominent platforms such as Pixels, Trust Wallet, and OKX Wallet. Future collaborations with high-profile partners like the TON Foundation and Anime Foundation aim to onboard millions of users to the Moca Network.

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2024-12-17 04:29:59

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AVIV ratio spikes as Bitcoin reaches new ATH

Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $107,000 reflects the strong bullish sentiment in the market in the past two months.

To understand what caused the persistent upward momentum this year, we can turn to the true market mean price (TMMP) and AVIV ratio. These on-chain indicators clarify investor behavior and provide insight into cost-basis trends.

The true market mean price (TMMP) is the average acquisition cost for the market, calculated by dividing the investor cap by the active supply. It excludes miners’ profit realizations to isolate investor-driven acquisition trends and measure Bitcoin’s cost basis across the secondary market. The AVIV ratio is often analyzed alongside TMMP, representing the ratio between active market valuation and realized valuation. It measures how far current market prices have diverged from the realized cost basis, showing potential overbought or oversold conditions. AVIV ratio is often used to identify profit-taking opportunities or risks during price volatility.

While TMMP has always been in a steady upward trend, changes in the pace of its increase can help clarify market behavior. The true market mean price has gradually risen throughout the year following Bitcoin’s price increase. The correlation between price increase and TMMP means that higher prices were supported by sustained market interest. As the year progressed, the gap between Bitcoin’s price and TMMP increased significantly, showing substantial unrealized profits for investors. This widening has historically been observed during mature bull markets, often preceding periods of increased volatility or corrections.

Graph showing Bitcoin’s true market mean price (TMMP) and AVIV ratio from July 2010 to December 2024 (Source: CryptoQuant)

The AVIV ratio stood at moderate levels at the start of 2024, consistent with a market in an accumulation phase. By mid-year, as Bitcoin’s price advanced, the ratio climbed higher, reflecting growing investor profits and a strengthening market. In December, the ratio reached levels historically associated with overheated market conditions, similar to patterns seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Such spikes in the ratio occur when Bitcoin’s market price significantly exceeds realized valuation, signaling that the market may be approaching a local peak.

Data from CryptoQuant shows an interesting pattern — 2024 has seen relative stability in the AVIV ratio and TMMP compared to previous years. This suggests that the market is maturing and becoming more efficient, with fewer extreme swings in acquisition costs. Historically, significant fluctuations in the AVIV ratio and TMMP have often followed sharp price movements that preceded bear markets. However, the reduced volatility in the AVIV ratio and TMMP throughout 2024 indicates that investor behavior is becoming more consistent, supporting a more resilient market structure.

While the TMMP’s rise signals long-term investor confidence, the AVIV ratio’s elevated level highlights the short-term risks of a correction. Historically, periods where the AVIV ratio exceeds 2 have been followed by price retracements, as profit-taking pressures weigh on the market. December 2024 mirrors these historical trends, with rising AVIV levels and a significant deviation from TMMP indicating a potential cooling phase ahead. However, relentless institutional interest and the growing derivatives market suggest this cooling phase is unlikely to be long-lived or particularly aggressive.

Investor behavior in 2024 supports this analysis. The consistent increase in TMMP suggests that investors have been accumulating Bitcoin at higher prices, raising the overall market cost basis. At the same time, the AVIV ratio’s late-year spike points to profit-taking activity as the market surged to new highs. This combination of accumulation and realized profits reflects a healthy bull market structure but raises caution for a potential short-term correction.

The post AVIV ratio spikes as Bitcoin reaches new ATH appeared first on CryptoSlate.

2024-12-17 01:00:08

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