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Circle of Games (COG), the spearhead in global multi-gaming platforms backed by Nazara, has officially debuted in the MENA region with an extraordinary launch event at the renowned Global Game Show held at the Grand Hyatt Exhibition Centre in Dubai. This milestone signals COG’s commitment to redefining the casual gaming experience and bridging the gap between Web2 gamers and Web3 technology.
Setting the Stage for Web3 Innovation
The launch event drew an audience of industry pioneers, gamers, and Web3 enthusiasts, with Yat Siu, Chairman of Animoca Brands, as the distinguished chief guest. His keynote address celebrated COG’s innovative integration of casual gaming with blockchain technology, positioning it as a leader in the Web3 gaming ecosystem.
The event highlighted COG’s robust portfolio of games, including globally popular titles like Ludo, Fruit Slash, Bubble Shooter, Chess, and 8-Ball Pool. With six games already live and an ambitious roadmap to surpass ten titles by Q1 2025, COG is set to become the preferred destination for casual gamers worldwide.
Vision and Strategic Growth
The launch underscored COG’s strategic collaborations with key global corporations and leading strategic partners. These alliances offer access to over 500 million users across 50+ countries, strengthening the company’s competitive edge. By drawing users from an established ecosystem, COG is accelerating its growth and establishing a foundation for long-term success.
Attendees witnessed live demonstrations of COG’s state-of-the-art features, including seamless user experiences, multi-chain integrations, and engaging game mechanics. With over 500,000 registered users so far and ambitious goals to reach 25 million users by the end of 2025 and 100 million users by the end of 2027 worldwide, COG is reshaping the future of casual gaming in the Web3 era.
“Today marks a significant milestone for Circle of Games as we expand into the MENA region. With our robust ecosystem, strategic partnerships, and an experienced team, we are committed to delivering an unparalleled gaming experience for users worldwide,” said Rabilal Thapa, CEO/Co-Founder of Circle of Games, during the event.
The Road Ahead in the MENA Region
Circle of Games, funded by Nazara, has outlined an ambitious regional expansion strategy, with launches slated for the UAE in Q4 2024, followed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain in Q1 2025, and Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco in Q2 2025. With projections to achieve 7.5 million users by 2025, 18 million by 2026, and 25 million by 2027, COG is poised to dominate the Web3 gaming landscape in the region.
About Circle of Games
Circle of Games is a pioneering multi-gaming platform funded by Nazara, merging casual gaming with Web3 technology. Developed by industry veterans from renowned companies like Zynga, PlaySimple, MPL, and Junglee Games, the platform boasts a dynamic and ever-growing library of games. By offering universal appeal and seamless user experiences, Circle of Games is setting a new benchmark for gaming innovation.
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The cryptocurrency arm of the American financial services company Robinhood has released its end-of-the-year report for 2024, outlining its growth and expansion to new markets over the past 11 months.
Alongside the report release, Robinhood Crypto is celebrating the first anniversary of launching a digital asset trading division in Europe.
Robinhood Releases End of Year Report
According to the report, Robinhood Crypto recorded a notional trading volume of $119 billion and $38 billion in crypto assets under custody as of November 2024. The entity said 2024 was an important year for its business because of the milestones it achieved.
Robinhood Crypto expanded its services in the United States by achieving full coverage in 50 states and territories, including Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The company increased the number of available cryptocurrencies in the U.S. to 20 by adding new assets like Solana (SOL), Pepe (PEPE), and dogwifhat (WIF).
It also launched a new trading application programming interface for its U.S. users, offering tools to view market data, manage portfolios, and place advanced orders.
In Europe, Robinhood added 14 new coins for local customers, bringing the number of supported assets to 40. The firm also launched SOL and ether (ETH) staking for its European users.
Regulatory Challenges
Furthermore, Robinhood’s crypto wallet saw notable developments. The crypto firm launched the wallet on Android and introduced advanced swapping features across several Ethereum-based networks, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, and Base. The company also redesigned its token discovery tab, making it easier for users to find and manage their assets.
It is worth mentioning that Robinhood’s 2024 experience was not without challenges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) slapped the entity with a Wells Notice in May, indicating a threat of legal action over the firm’s securities law violations. While the SEC has yet to file the lawsuit, Robinhood’s crypto business has performed well for the year.
Johann Kerbrat, vice president and general manager of Robinhood Crypto, said:
“2024 marked a significant year for the cryptocurrency landscape and recent developments suggest that 2025 is poised to be an even more transformative year, with broader adoption anticipated across the industry.”
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Bitcoin’s price went to a new multi-week high of just under $103,000 but was stopped there and pushed south by around a grand.
The altcoins have performed a lot worse on a 24-hour scale, resulting in a growing BTC dominance.
BTC Dominance Increases
Monday and Tuesday saw a few violent price rejections for the primary cryptocurrency, which was driven to $94,400 on a couple of occasions during those days. However, the bulls managed to prevail and propelled a few leg-ups that helped BTC recover all losses and were quick to challenge the six-digit entry territory by Thursday.
In fact, bitcoin indeed broke through that level and spiked to $102,000 on Friday and Saturday. It was stopped there at first but the bulls drove it even further hours ago to just under $103,000.
Nevertheless, it couldn’t penetrate that line and now sits beneath $102,000. Nevertheless, its market capitalization continues to see new local peaks and sits well above $2 trillion.
BTC’s dominance over the altcoins is also on the rise. The metric has jumped to over 53% on CG after dropping to 52.5% yesterday.
Alts in Retrace
Most altcoins also tried to break out during the weekend, but most have been stopped in their tracks and are with notable losses on a daily scale. Ethereum and Ripple are down by around 2%, with the former struggling below $3,900 and the latter at $2.4.
ADA, DOGE, BNB, and SOL have dropped by up to 5% in the case of the first. Tron, Avalanche, Polkadot, and SUI have slumped even more, in some cases by up to 8%.
The cumulative market capitalization of all crypto assets is down by around $70 billion in a day and is well below $3.8 trillion on CG now.
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It’s been a big week of DeFi news for the Donald Trump-backed crypto venture, World Liberty Financial (WLFI). Earlier this week, the project expanded its portfolio with $5 million worth of investment in three major assets: Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Aave (AAVE).
The acquisitions include 2,631 ETH at $3,801 each, 41,335 LINK at $24.2, and 3,357 AAVE at $297.8, according to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain.
The purchases mark WLFI’s first foray into LINK and AAVE, diversifying its growing treasury. In fact, since the investment, LINK has soared to a 3-year high amid growing open interest in futures contracts.
What’s more, the project’s community has now approved a proposal to launch an instance of the Aave v3. It will initially support borrowing and lending for Ethereum (ETH) and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), and stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USDC.
The arrangement will see AaveDAO receive 7% of the circulating supply of WLFI tokens. The DAO will also receive 20% of all fees generated by the new instance, the proposal said.
Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial is already leveraging Chainlink for data accuracy and cross-chain connectivity. Last month, its governance community proposed launching an Aave v3 protocol on Ethereum.
“I think it is a play at supporting the assets that their DeFi platform will be using, Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt. “Chainlink will provide the interoperability infrastructure, and the project is launching on Aave v3, which is on Ethereum.”
The news about World Liberty Financial’s purchases and new Aave v3 instance come as DeFi tokens are seeing impressive gains. LINK and AAVE have surged by 23% and 44% in the past week, respectively. Meanwhile, Ethereum made its own run and nearly retook $4,000 on Thursday, according to CoinGecko data.
The World Liberty Financial protocol now holds over $50 million in ETH and approximately $74 million in cryptos, including wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) and stablecoins such as USDC and USDT, as per data provided by blockchain intelligence service Arkham Intelligence.
Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BINPAY, noted the importance of Ethereum to projects like World Liberty Financial: “Ethereum powers a wide range of dApps across gaming, gambling, socializing, NFTs, and DeFi,” Azazov told Decrypt. “With constant innovation and new projects emerging on its platform—even Tether Treasury printing billions of USDT on Ethereum—its token price is likely to continue rising. I expect Ethereum to reach $7,000 in 2025.”
Initially unveiled by Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump in August 2024, World Liberty Financial is billed as a “one-stop shop” for crypto borrowing and lending services.
President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of crypto has been one of the more unexpected narratives of his re-election campaign.
Once a vocal critic of Bitcoin, Trump has pivoted to champion the crypto industry, pledging to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, reform crypto regulations, and even free Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
Since Trump’s re-election, he has doubled down on his pro-crypto stance, appointing several crypto advocates to high-profile positions. These include the new SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz as the next Attorney General.
Major United States-based Bitcoin automated teller machine (BTM) company Byte Federal has suffered a major data breach.
A Thursday filing with Maine’s attorney general shows that Byte Federal’s breach allowed the attacker to access the personal data of 58,000 customers, including 111 Maine residents. The company noticed the attack on Nov. 18, more than a month after it occurred on Sept. 30.
Venket Naga, co-founder and CEO of security-focused data storage service Serenity, told Decrypt that the incident shows the dynamic nature of constantly expanding cybersecurity threats. According to him, crypto industry firms “must adopt adaptive frameworks that evolve with emerging risks, posing risks to both the physical and underlying infrastructure involved with blockchain.”
CoinATMRadar data shows that Byte Federal operates 1,356 Bitcom ATMs in the United States. This is equivalent to about 4.3% of all crypto ATMs in the country.
The attack was reportedly a consequence of a third-party service being exploited. After detecting the incident a month later, Byte Federal decided to shut down its platform and reassured users that no funds were lost.
A joint statement from smart contract auditors at crypto cybersecurity firm Hacken Ataberk Yavuzer and Olesia Bilenka explains that the “incident occurred due to an unpatched or outdated GitLab system.” It goes on to add that “inadequate server segmentation” could be what allowed attackers to access sensitive customer data.
“It is very likely that the GitLab repositories contained sensitive credentials to access Byte Federal’s databases, which include name, birthdate, address, phone number, email address, government-issued ID, social security number, transaction activity, and user photograph information,” the auditors highlighted.
Despite the breach, the company noted that it found no evidence that customer data was actually misused or accessed. “Nonetheless, we are taking precautionary measures to ensure the security of your data and to help alleviate any concerns you may have.” the letter to customers read.
Byte Federal also noted it’s working with an independent cybersecurity team on a forensic investigation of the incident and might pursue legal action.
Byte Federal said it applied a hard reset to all customer accounts and sent a notice concerning the incident. The company also changed internal passwords, the password management system, tokens and keys to prevent further breaches.
The company urged customers to reset their login credentials. It warned that users may be asked to verify their personal information—providing more confidential data to a firm that just experienced a potential data leak.
“The Byte Federal incident is yet another example of how forcing commercial activities to retain their customers’ data is the worst practice concerning their privacy,” an anonymous former Bitcoin ATM operator told Decrypt. They wanted to withhold their identity because they chose to shut down their service rather than comply with know-your-customer rules.
“In the case of cryptocurrencies, these data breaches are even more dangerous for users because they associate their personal information with a specific type of financial activity, making them easy targets for theft and fraud,” the former Bitcoin ATM operator added.
The following is a guest post from Shane Neagle, Editor In Chief from The Tokenist.
With US presidential elections concluded, Bitcoin has been hitting new all-time highs nearly on a weekly basis during November. Having reached almost $100,000 threshold on November 22nd, Bitcoin reinvigorated the altcoin market, now holding a $1.49 trillion market cap.
The common wisdom would suggest that altcoins will follow Bitcoin’s lead, as prior trends have shown. But what types of altcoins should see significant performance? More importantly, are there new fundamentals in play to consider this time?
First, let’s revisit the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. It is more important than one would think.
Why Does Bitcoin Lead the Crypto Market?
From the launch of Bitcoin mainnet in January 2009, to Bitcoin price breaching $10k threshold in November 2017, it took nearly 9 years. Although Bitcoin gradually became a household name, it still retained the status of a novel, highly speculative asset. This is understandable in a central banking system, where money is synonymous with government edicts – fiat (by decree) money.
Therefore, belief in government edicts, and government’s application of force, is what gives money its value. This has been the habituated common wisdom for generations. Moreover, there is the question of medium. If Bitcoin is not a physical paper token issued by a central bank, but digital, how can it be trusted?
Blockchain enthusiasts already know the answer. The central bank, the Federal Reserve, also relies on an electronic ledger, which could manifest its accounting as physical tokens (paper money) but not necessarily. In contrast, the entire point of Bitcoin’s ledger is that its accounting is fortified against arbitrary dilution.
That makes Bitcoin pseudo-digital. Its accounting is enforced by computing power via its proof-of-work algorithm, which erects a bridge between the digital and physical. The physical being the energy and hardware assets needed for computing power. Consequently, Bitcoin sets the altcoin market:
As the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s sound money aspect is easy to understand.
As the Bitcoin network’s computing power grows, holders are more confident in the inviolability of Bitcoin’s accounting (distributed ledger).
As new altcoins appear, they are traded against Bitcoin, it being the market benchmark tethered to physicality of energy and hardware.
In times of uncertainty of altcoins’ valuations, holders revert to Bitcoin as a safer asset.
Likewise, in times of rising Bitcoin price, holders spill over to small cap altcoins because the profit potential is greater. After all, it is more difficult to move a large market weight that Bitcoin holds.
Inversely, the large Bitcoin market cap serves as a psychological cushion, always ready to absorb fleeing altcoin capital in times of distress. But in a highly stressful landscape, that capital may flee Bitcoin itself.
The problem is, if enough altcoin capital spills over, the entire crypto market goes down because many view Bitcoin as just another cryptocurrency, albeit one that has the first mover advantage.
Altcoin-Bitcoin Pullback
The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the crypto market is intrinsic. When the central bank increased its balance sheet in excess of $6 trillion, between 2020 and 2022, the bloated liquidity spilled over into crypto assets, prompting traders to explore popular trading strategies to maximize opportunities.
However, all liquidity is limited. The expansion of the altcoin market ate away Bitcoin’s market cap dominance. Traders often turn to trading rooms during such pivotal shifts to share strategies and insights into navigating market changes effectively.
Although the ICO boom spawned dozens of altcoins, it is also the case that most were fraudulent or dead in the water. Consequently, Bitcoin regained some lost ground until the Fed’s unprecedented monetary intervention during the pandemic narrative.
After the Fed’s money printing spree, Bitcoin dominance shrank further. Following the over-leveraged Terra (LUNA) collapse, tied to algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD, the altcoin market suffered an estimated $60 billion loss.
But because top altcoins already performed better than Bitcoin, due to their lower market caps and higher profit potential, the speculative drive remained. This decreased Bitcoin’s dominance further, but only temporarily.
In a classic domino toppling scenario, by the end of 2022, the Fed-pulled liquidity rug ended up triggering the collapse of the over-leveraged FTX exchange, shocking the entire crypto market. Bitcoin was engulfed in the selloff panic, having dropped to its pre-2020 price level of $16.5k.
Nonetheless, as the big question mark loomed over the entire crypto market, Bitcoin started to recover. The US regional banking crisis, in the spring of 2023, helped the case for Bitcoin’s fundamentals. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 and the 4th halving, further laid the groundwork for recent new all-time highs.
But how has the altcoin market evolved alongside Bitcoin?
Memecoin Dominance Is Telling
Most of the “old-guard” altcoins focused on blockchain infrastructure, decentralized finance (DeFi), and other efforts to tokenize human activity via smart contracts. However, the crypto wipeout during 2022 appears to have left psychological scarring.
The lofty narratives of the previous cycle were largely superseded by hype-gambling through memecoins. Artemis data shows that memecoins have dominated the crypto market, with only AI tokens surpassing their performance in early 2024.
This coincides with Donald Trump securing his 2nd term in the Oval Office. In turn, this points to crypto holders getting accustomed to social media-driven hype cycles around communities rather than altcoin fundamentals.
Likewise, the AI revolution is still going strong. Other than various “ChatGPT with makeup” software and providers offering hosted GPU servers, AI cryptos are also a hot topic, with the much-awaited release of AI agents expected to spurn another bullish period.
Kaito AI, market insights platform, determined that one in four crypto investors prioritize memecoin discourse. In other words, focus is more on short-term profits rather than long-term return of value. This suits more dynamic traders who look up crypto trends on a daily basis.
Narrative-wise, the following altcoin categories performed ahead of Bitcoin year-to-date: meme, real world assets (RWA), prediction markets, PolitiFi, AI, Solana and smart contract platforms.
In total, there are 15,713 cryptocurrencies in circulation, tracked across 1,178 exchanges and 494 categories. Such an enormous amount of digital assets, across so many categories, creates a daunting mental load to filter the wheat from the chaff.
Conversely, the popularity of memecoins is one manifestation of handling that mental load. After all, their simplicity and virality is itself a filtering mechanism. But another coping manifestation is the reversion to the “old guard” altcoins.
Older Altcoins Return to a Friendlier Scene
The 2022 collapse of crypto prices was so severe that it became pointless to sell altcoins at such toppled prices. Consequently, it is fair to say that many losses were unrealized, awaiting the new bullrun.
It appears that Bitcoin’s latest bullrun is triggering that cycle. At the end of August, Joao Wedson of CryptoQuant observed that the altcoin market is once again aligning with Bitcoin.
Within the top 20 altcoins (excluding stablecoins) in the previous cycle, during the peak of the November 2021 bullrun, 11 have remained. Although most of their prices are still far away from the prior tops, they have the potential to reclaim ground under the assumption that this is just the start of a new bullrun.
This could be the case if more exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved, which spurred Bitcoin to rally and gain higher ground earlier in the year. Case in point, NYSE Arca recently filed for Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, including the following coins:
Portfolio Asset
Symbol
Weight
Bitcoin
BTC
75.10%
Ethereum
ETH
16.50%
Solana
SOL
4.30%
XRP
XRP
1.50%
Cardano
ADA
0.70%
Avalanche
AVAX
0.60%
Chainlink
LINK
0.40%
Bitcoin Cash
BCH
0.40%
Polkadot
DOT
0.30%
Uniswap
UNI
0.30%
Interestingly, the weight of Bitcoin in the index is much greater than current Bitcoin dominance. Once again, this points to the crypto dilution problem. Despite altcoins being much cheaper, there are so many of them that it is difficult to gauge their fair value long-term.
Likewise, their scarcity is not guaranteed. As more centralized projects, their inflation rate could be a subject of change. For instance, Solana’s current inflation rate of SOL tokens is 4.886% while the long-term proposition is 1.5%.
Nonetheless, now that the anti-crypto SEC Chair is on the way out, while the purportedly crypto-friendly Trump admin is incoming, the crypto market is likely to deepen its liquidity pool. Additionally, the recent verdict that sanction against Tornado Cash was unlawful is likely to have wide reaching implications.
The court effectively acknowledged that dApps are a new type of asset, lacking sanctionable ownership as a smart contract code. To put it differently, the court reinstated common sense that open-source cannot be property.
The Bottom Line
Even with historic money supply boost, liquidity is finite. Bitcoin managed to capture most crypto liquidity, as it pushed an entirely different way of viewing money. This monetary potential spurred countless altcoins into existence, expanding the utility of smart contracts.
But instead of expansion, the crypto market underwent constriction due to massive fraud and over-leverage, pulling down Bitcoin with it. In a cleaner market and more bullish regulatory landscape, Bitcoin is now poised to trigger a new altcoin bullrun.
Amid the daunting altcoin numerosity, 1st gen altcoins resurfaced, attempting to anchor value to established familiarity.
Neon Machine, the studio behind the Avalanche-based extraction shooter Shrapnel, revealed exclusively to Decrypt that it has made several leadership changes, including appointing a new CEO, ahead of the game’s free-to-play launch in 2025.
Ken Rosman, a 30-year veteran of the video game industry who spent many years at Microsoft’s Xbox division working on games like Halo Wars and Sunset Overdrive, has taken over Neon Machine’s chief executive role and will help shepherd Shrapnel toward its full public rollout.
Neon Machine co-founder and former CEO Mark Long has transitioned to the role of an advisor and will continue to support the studio amid the leadership shift. In a statement, Long noted Rosman’s history of shipping and supporting live operations on high-profile games.
“When we started Shrapnel in 2020, we had a dream to break the mold of the traditional game development cycle and design a blockbuster-quality shooter where players shape the game and truly own their creations,” Long said. “Now that we are getting close to launching Shrapnel, it’s time for new leadership.”
While Rosman will head Neon Machine on the whole, Dave Johnson will lead the Shrapnel project, and Don Norbury—CTO at Neon Machine and previously Shrapnel studio head—will oversee the company’s Moonshot suite of Web3 game development tools.
When asked what prompted the leadership shifts, a Neon Machine spokesperson mentioned the need for a studio to remain adaptable during a game’s lengthy development cycle.
“To launch, a game team needs extreme focus on execution,” the spokesperson said. “For us, this includes global live-ops, retention mechanics, evolution of features in the game and marketplace, new partnerships, and more.”
“Ken is one of the best in the business at this kind of disciplined execution, having proven himself running AAA studios and shipping AAA games for decades,” the rep added. “Mark is still advising, and Ken already has the whole team feeling positive and working hard toward our launch goals.”
Amid the leadership shakeup, Neon Machine told Decrypt that it is raising new funding in a round led by the Blizzard Avalanche Ecosystem Fund. Griffin Gaming Partners and Polychain Capital are also involved.
The studio plans to reveal full details on the raise in the first quarter of 2025. Neon Machine announced its last fundraise in October 2023, with a $20 million round led by Polychain.
Shrapnel is a first-person shooter for PC that revolves around securing and extracting resources while engaging in competitive online matches. Released in early access on the Epic Games Store in February, Neon Machine previously allowed players to buy access and participate in limited-time events as the game continues to evolve.
✦ New Game Mode ✦
Excited to unveil that we’ve been working on a new mode that brings the action closer and amplifies the heart-pounding moments you love!
➜ Form your squad ➜ Collect Sigma and bank it ➜ Defend your stockpile – or steal enemy’s ➜ New Sigma abilities ➜ A… pic.twitter.com/Q7FdsnEUQM
The game is being built around assets on the Avalanche blockchain, where Neon Machine has launched a dedicated instance called an L1 (formerly subnet) for the game. A SHRAP token is already live, and the game will include NFTs that represent unique assets, including player-designed items in the game.
Neon Machine’s leadership changes also come amid an ongoing legal battle with once-majority shareholder Cort Javarone, CEO of investment firm 4D Factory, who studio founders alleged in November 2023 had staged a “coup” to take over the studio.
Javarone, for his part, alleged that studio leadership had gone rogue and refused to work with the board.
Neon Machine declined comment this week on the current status of the lawsuit, but said that it hopes to have an update in the first quarter of 2025.
“It is not a distraction to the team’s focus on building the best game possible,” a studio spokesperson said.
Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to correct Rosman’s career length, as well as to clarify that Neon Machine stopped selling extraction packs to gain early access to Shrapnel.
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Crypto-based prediction market Polymarket was a breakout success in 2024.
The platform accurately predicted global events throughout the year, including the U.S. presidential election.
Its 26-year-old CEO Shayne Coplan, who views the world through the lens of probabilities, is Decrypt’s 2024 Person of the Year.
Four years ago, he was just another callow entrepreneur, hacking away in a makeshiftbathroom office at his passion project—a prediction market that would blend gambling with real world events. This year that project, Polymarket, emerged as one of the most interesting and potentially valuable use cases in the burgeoning crypto industry.
Shayne Coplan’s blockchain-based prediction platform captivated bettors and spectators alike this year. With each twist and turn in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, it attracted legions of new eyeballs and users, who ultimately foresaw key events like President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic ticket and Donald Trump’s White House victory.
For Coplan, a 26-year-old New York native, navigating Polymarket’s rise into the mainstream wasn’t always easy. Even today, despite its enormous success, allegations of wash trading and market manipulation dog the platform, and a recent FBI raid of his apartment, in which his phone and computer were confiscated, have yet to be resolved.
Still, as Coplan told Decrypt, “it’s too easy to get lost in the sauce. Through all the chaos, the only way to navigate is to stay centered and pragmatic.”
While crypto entered the political realm in unprecedented ways this year, through political spending efforts and promises made by the President-elect, Polymarket’s place in that dynamic was unique. The platform attracted notable attention from outside the crypto space as a disruptive data source, showcasing this year’s political drama in real-time, despite the critics.
Speculation and crypto go hand-in-hand, but Polymarket distilled those forces into a tool that offered the world genuine insight. It gave crypto, long in search of a use case beyond Bitcoin’s store of value, the potential to attract the masses. And though it’s not a Main Street application yet, with a pro-crypto Administration about to take office in the U.S., Coplan’s startup appears well positioned to be the frontrunner among crypto startups. For these reasons, Coplan is Decrypt’s 2024 Person of the Year.
Who is Shayne Coplan?
Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020, but his passion for crypto developed long before that. Growing up on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, he said he first became interested in crypto at the age of 14, drawn to the multi-trillion industry while it was in its infancy.
2020, running out of money, solo founder, HQ in my makeshift bathroom office. little did I know Polymarket was going to change the world. pic.twitter.com/TktiCXQgXr
At 16, he participated in Ethereum’s presale, purchasing the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization for around $0.30. He was then a student at The Beacon School, a highly selective high school in New York’s Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood.
Coplan was always interested in seeing the world through the lens of probabilities. At Messari’s crypto conference this year, for example, he described an interest in data-driven websites such as 538 as foundational in building that worldview.
“I was always seeking out where I could see percentage likelihood,” Coplan recalled. “A lot of the time I saw that on weird, barebones 1999 html websites that were using some sort of model that was just some guy’s thing. But the fact that you could look at the probabilities was cool.”
While Coplan would later enroll at New York University to study computer science, the entrepreneur left after only one semester. He put his studies indefinitely on pause to pursue prediction markets, hammering out Polymarket’s design during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Though Coplan left the academic world behind to pursue his dreams, he’s no stranger to how it operates. Coplan said his mother is an NYU professor, while his father teaches at another university in New York City.
In 2020, Polymarket raised $4 million in a seed round led by Polychain Capital, according to Cryptorank. This year, it raised another $70 million across Series A and Series B funding rounds, including investments from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
As expected, with the U.S. post-election frenzy dying down, Polymarket’s betting activity dropped, but it still appears to be holding its own. Polymarket’s daily trading volume, for example, has averaged around $50 million in December, down from its November peak of more than $85 million, but substantial nevertheless.
The number of monthly active traders peaked at 293,705 in November and dropped to 116,370 for December so far.
Betting on political events may be Polymarket’s bread-and-butter, but the platform hosts over 500 markets that ponder everything from existential questions, such as whether a nuclear weapon will be detonated in 2024, to parsing Taylor Swift’s love life.
The road to relevance
Though Polymarket has become a go-to prediction market across the globe, the platform’s success wasn’t immediate. In its first three years, that key stat of monthly active users never climbed past approximately 5,700, according to the Dune dashboard.
In April 2024, the platform was doing a scant $38 million in monthly volume. By the beginning of September, monthly volume had exploded to more than $500 million.
“Most ideas don’t instantly become overnight successes,” Coplan said. “You only lose when you give up.”
Needless to say, Coplan stuck with it, and created an innovative framework for betting on virtually anything. Notably, the platform currently charges users no fees and appears to be foregoing revenue in a bid to dominate the global market for prediction markets.
People participate in Polymarket’s contests by purchasing shares, which fluctuate between $0.00 and $1 depending on what market participants see as most likely. For example, shares priced at $0.66 would indicate a 66% chance of an event happening. (For a detailed breakdown, check out Decrypt’s guide for how prediction markets like Polymarket work.)
The run up to the U.S. general election proved to be the best possible marketing for Coplan’s project. Months before Polymarket predicted the President-elect, a debate between President Joe Biden and Trump created the pretext for a momentous shift in the Democratic ticket. Polymarket’s traders saw blood in the water, and a market betting that Biden would drop out before the election spiked following his disastrous performance against Trump. Even as Biden insisted he was in it for the long haul, Polymarket traders were relentlessly skeptical.
Eventually, the Polymarket consensus was validated.
“Polymarket called it. Before anywhere else,” Coplan said on X, calling the market prediction a “historical W.” “Trust the markets,” he added.
That early success attracted plenty of media attention (not all of it good) and that created a kind of ouroboros, with news coverage bringing in new users, and new users bolstering the nascent betting markets. Which was of course Coplan’s primary objective. He liked to showcase Polymarket’s iOS App Store rankings, highlighting its rank among established, mainstream apps such as YouTube and WhatsApp.
Shoutouts online from tech CEO Elon Musk and the integration of Polymarket’s data into Bloomberg’s Terminal, furthered Polymarket’s entrance to the mainstream. Polymarket got a boost in credibility when Nate Silver, the renowned statistician and journalist, joined Polymarket as an advisor in July.
“Politics aside, many of the people I looked up to from afar growing up have reached out to say they’re huge fans of Polymarket,” he said. “It’s a priceless feeling.”
By the time Election Day had come in November, more than 200,000 people a month were using Polymarket, per a Dune dashboard. As Americans went to the ballot box, the platform’s open interest—representing the total value of outstanding bets—totaled $463 million.
Polymarket’s U.S. general election market, which effectively became the platform’s namesake, ultimately generated over $3.6 billion in trading volume.
But money aside, the election tended to validate Polymarket’s ability to provide accurate information that goes above and beyond media spin, said Coplan.
“Every single person who follows politics learned firsthand that Polymarket is a more accurate way to follow politics than traditional news and the pollsters,” he said. “People will not forget that in years to come.”
What’s next?
While Polymarket has become a cultural phenomenon, the platform has faced regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., alongside its competitors. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), for example, brought an action against Polymarket for failing to register its services with the regulator in 2022. The platform officially became off-limits for U.S. citizens, while Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC.
Likewise, the CFTC tried to block political event contracts from another U.S.-based prediction platform, Kalshi, this year, which also focused on November’s elections.
The agency raised concerns about the potential of political event contracts to undermine the integrity of U.S. elections. But a federal court’s decision in September found that the CFTC’s proposed ban on Kalshi’s contracts exceeded its authority, setting the stage for new entrants in the prediction space such as the trading app Robinhood and the brokerage firm Interactive Brokers.
The CFTC meanwhile indicated that it plans on appealing the court’s Kalshi ruling, though the Trump Administration could well derail that action.
More troubling for Coplan was that shortly after Trump’s win, his New York apartment was raided by the FBI. At the time, a Polymarket spokesperson claimed the raid was an act of “political retribution” for predicting the outcome of the 2024 race.
Bloomberg News later reported, however, that the FBI’s raid was related to a Department of Justice investigation. The publication, citing a person familiar with the subject, said authorities were investigating Polymarket for allowing U.S. users to bet on the platform, despite the earlier CFTC settlement. The site is currently “geofenced,” meaning that users from U.S.-based IP addressees are automatically blocked from betting. However, that’s easy to circumvent via VPN services, which mask one’s IP address.
France’s national gaming regulator also started to look into Polymarket after a French trader won an estimated $47 million on $45 million in bets, which mostly centered on whether Trump would get reelected. Polymarket decided to block the betting market for French-based users.
As Polymarket navigates the post-election world, its relationship with regulators worldwide could prove key in building past this year’s surge in activity and new users. Still, Coplan said he enters 2025 optimistic, and he’s emboldened by his platform’s demonstrable success as a far better alternative to conventional polls.
“It’s moments like election night which set the precedent that Polymarket is more accurate than legacy alternatives,” Coplan said. “Trust must be earned, and it was.”
Certainly, the future looks brighter. With an incoming administration that’s likely to clarify regulations that pertain to crypto and prediction markets, Polymarket’s founder is upbeat.
“The incoming administration looked heavily at Polymarket forecasts throughout the election cycle, which is incredible news,” he said. “The first step is understanding why these markets are so valuable, which has been accomplished. The natural next step is to embrace it.”
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